CPU Power Sagnation

A while a go (2008) I did a study on what drove me to upgrade my computer (the large green circles with date and MIPS labels). Typically I found this was around 5 to 10 times the speed of my previous computer was the tipping point to buy a new computer.  This has typically meant a three year life cycle for my computers.

I determined this from a simplistic analysis of the Drystone (MPS) benchmarks over the history of my computer life (roughly since 1982). Interestingly enough there seems to be a power function which has a reasonable fit over time for both the Drystone results and processor speed MHz.

 

My reason for revisiting this study is lately I have been underwhelmed by the latest mobile CPU's coming out from Intel and feel they have been stagnating or in some cases going backwards in performance. Interestingly enough I came across a similar study that concluded a 52% yearly increased per year prior to 2004 and 21% post 2004.

Even though my data is obviously much sketchier I think you can see a similar change in gradient pre and post 2004.  An interesting point is that we both developed similar graphs independently of each other pretty much interrogating the same questions about rate of change of CPU speed.

When you put these rates in terms of my tendency to update every 3 years it becomes quite dramatic. As you can see why I am questioning my normal 3 year update may now be a 5 year update.

	1 Year Performance Improvement	3 Year Performance Improvement	5 Year Performance Improvement
Pre2004	1.52	3.44	7.85
Post2004	1.21	1.77	2.59

Interestingly enough my intuition that there was something going on with CPU speeds was enough to perk my interest sufficiently to investigate my computer upgrade history was only a few years after the 2004 tipping point observed in the study above.

I guess I am not the only one with shrinking  consumer demand and pushing product cycles.  Call me cynical ... is Intel's delay due to production or to extend current product life cycle.

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