CPU Power Sagnation

A while a go (2008) I did a study on what drove me to upgrade my computer (the large green circles with date and MIPS labels). Typically I found this was around 5 to 10 times the speed of my previous computer was the tipping point to buy a new computer.  This has typically meant a three year life cycle for my computers.

I determined this from a simplistic analysis of the Drystone (MPS) benchmarks over the history of my computer life (roughly since 1982). Interestingly enough there seems to be a power function which has a reasonable fit over time for both the Drystone results and processor speed MHz.

 

My reason for revisiting this study is lately I have been underwhelmed by the latest mobile CPU's coming out from Intel and feel they have been stagnating or in some cases going backwards in performance. Interestingly enough I came across a similar study that concluded a 52% yearly increased per year prior to 2004 and 21% post 2004.

Even though my data is obviously much sketchier I think you can see a similar change in gradient pre and post 2004.  An interesting point is that we both developed similar graphs independently of each other pretty much interrogating the same questions about rate of change of CPU speed.

When you put these rates in terms of my tendency to update every 3 years it becomes quite dramatic. As you can see why I am questioning my normal 3 year update may now be a 5 year update.

	1 Year Performance Improvement	3 Year Performance Improvement	5 Year Performance Improvement
Pre2004	1.52	3.44	7.85
Post2004	1.21	1.77	2.59

Interestingly enough my intuition that there was something going on with CPU speeds was enough to perk my interest sufficiently to investigate my computer upgrade history was only a few years after the 2004 tipping point observed in the study above.

I guess I am not the only one with shrinking  consumer demand and pushing product cycles.  Call me cynical ... is Intel's delay due to production or to extend current product life cycle.

• AMD Q2: Shrinking PC market leads to revenue miss | ZDNet
• Intel delays next-gen chips as Moore's law begins to crack

Beyond Maturity

Since the development of the Capability Maturity Model Integration (CMMI) by the Carnegie Mellon University Software Institute (SEI) and the US Air Force, every man and their dog have come up with their own maturity index's that are essentially the same as or close to the CMMI.

My premise is that there must be something beyond a simple assessment of a management process and I think that is the actualisation of that management process.  The idea is to not measure the theoretical effectiveness the organisation's management process but to measure how productive and effective is the output of the management process. ie the value of rapid actualisation.

 I think this draws some broad similarities to the ISO System Engineering, Design for Six Sigma, AGILE, CMMI and my own rapid value actualisation method.

ISO 15288	Six Sigma	AGILE	Capability Maturity Model Assessment	Rapid Value Actualisation
Stakeholder Requirements Definition Process (Clause 6.4.1) Requirements Analysis Process (Clause 6.4.2)	Define	Discovery	Initial	Benefits Identification/ Earned Value Framework
Architectural Design Process (Clause 6.4.3)	Measure	Design	Managed	Model Based Design
Implementation Process (Clause 6.4.4) Integration Process (Clause 6.4.5) Verification Process (Clause 6.4.6)	Analyse	Develop	Process Defined	Rapid Prototyping/ Initial Benefits/EVM
Transition Process (Clause 6.4.7) Validation Process (Clause 6.4.8)	Design	Integrate & Test	Quantitatively Managed	Change Management
Operation Process (Clause 6.4.9) Maintenance Process (Clause 6.4.10) Disposal Process (Clause 6.4.11)	Verify	Release	Optimised	Application Implementation/ Benefits Realisation

I would have liked to have worked Prince2 into the above table but its more a management framework to be overlaid onto a product development cycle. This article has the best view I have seen of the seven Prince2 Management processes.

Although this article does have a good view on overlaying Prince2 onto a project/product development process.

Gran Turismo 6 Update History

Just a quick summary of GT6 Updates.

Version	Date	Days	Details	Size	Link
1.01	05/12/2013		Brings Vision GT, Online Features, & More	1200	http://www.gtplanet.net/gran-turismo-6-update-1-01-now-available-brings-vision-gt-online-features-more/
1.02	18/12/2013	13	Now Available: Red Bull X Challenge, Login Credit Bonus & More	1200	http://www.gtplanet.net/gt6-patch-1-02-christmas-update-now-available-red-bull-x-challenge-login-credit-bonus-more/
1.03	22/01/2014	35	These include the BMW M4, the Toyota FT-1 concept, and Mario Andretti's 1948 Hudson stock car	99	http://www.gtplanet.net/gran-turismo-6-update-1-03-now-available-brings-toyota-ft-1-concept-bmw-m4-interior-and-new-seasonal-events/
1.04	28/01/2014	6	added four new cars: the Mercedes-Benz AMG Vision Gran Turismo Racing Series (a racing-modified version of the Mercedes-Benz AMG Vision Gran Turismo), the Corvette Stingray GT Concept '13 (a tuned version of the Corvette Stingray shown at SEMA 2013) and two variants of the Gran Turismo Red Bull X2014 (a venturi car and a fan car to complete the X2014 series)	214	http://www.gtplanet.net/gran-turismo-6-update-1-04-now-available-brings-corvette-stingray-gt-concept-new-red-bull-x-challenges-amg-vision-racing-series-more/
1.05	01/03/2014	32	added multi-monitor support	100	http://www.gtplanet.net/gran-turismo-6-update-1-05-brings-multi-monitor-support/
1.06	07/04/2014	37	Brings GPS Visualizer, 3D Compatibility, Custom Rear Wings & More	295	http://www.gtplanet.net/gt6-updated-1-06-brings-gps-data-visualizer-3d-compatibility-custom-rear-wings-more/
1.07	14/05/2014	37	few minor functionality tweaks to online mode, the BMW Vision GT car	961	http://www.gtplanet.net/update-v1-07-released-brings-bmw-vision-gt/
1.08	30/05/2014	16	Ayrton Senna Tribute Content, Mitsubishi Vision GT Car	1400	http://www.gtplanet.net/gt6-update-1-08-released-ayrton-senna-tribute-content-mitsubishi-vision-gt-car/
1.09	18/06/2014	19	which included the Red Bull Ring circuit, the Toyota TS030 Hybrid, the Lexus IS F CCS-R, and the Nissan GT-R Nismo GT3 driven by Nissan GT Academy graduates in the Blancpain Endurance Series, Volkswagen Vision GTI	598	http://www.gtplanet.net/gran-turismo-6-v1-09-update-arrives-includes-red-bull-ring-and-more/
1.10	25/07/2014	37	two highly anticipated Vision GT project cars from Aston Martin DP-100 Vision Gran Turismo and Nissan CONCEPT 2020 Vision Gran Turismo, Brake Caliper Paint, More Car Number Customization Options and Engine brake reduction control on formula cars disabled	2100	http://www.gtplanet.net/gt6-update-110/
1.11	06/08/2014	12	improvements to mutli-monitor and open lobby	30	http://www.gtplanet.net/gran-turismo-6-update-1-11-brings-improvements-to-multi-monitor-and-open-lobbies/
1.12	16/09/2014	41	Toyota unveiled a version of the FT-1 concept car with new colors and interiors, which was later named the "Toyota FT-1 Graphite", Nissan GT-R Nismo R35 and a new 27 km original track based in Zahara de la Sierra.	484	http://www.gtplanet.net/gt6-update-1-12-released-includes-new-track-new-online-features-new-cars/
1.13	01/10/2014	15	to address numerous glitches and bugs	9.5	http://www.gtplanet.net/gt6-update-1-13-released-fixes-numerous-software-bugs/
1.14	19/11/2014	49	was released, featuring a special safety car based on the BMW M4 Performance Edition, Subaru VIZIV GT Vision Gran Turismo, an update to Suzuka Circuit to its current specifications, added events to the Sierra Time Rally, compatibility with MoTec i2 Pro/NissanConnect Nismo Plus GPS Data visualistion added, and other improvements and adjustments (incl [Onboard Mic Position], more tuning options for BMW M4 '14, etc)	548	http://www.gtplanet.net/gran-turismo-6-114/
1.15	17/12/2014	28	Brings Chevrolet Chaparral 2X Vision Gran Tursimo & Infiniti Vision Vision Gran Tursimo (VGT) Cars	589	http://www.gtplanet.net/gt6-update-115/
1.16 (preview)	24/12/2014	7	Adds Mazda LM55 Vision Vision Gran Tursimo		http://www.gtplanet.net/mazda-lm55-vision-gran-turismo-introduced-in-holiday-update-for-gt6/
1.16	25/02/2015	70	Midfield Raceway, B-Spec, & MINI Vision GT, New Paint Feature	536	https://www.gtplanet.net/gt6-update-1-16-now-available-midfield-raceway-b-spec-mini-vision-gt/
1.17	18/03/2015	21	Brings Lexus & Alpine Vision GT Cars	397	https://www.gtplanet.net/gt6-update-1-17-released-brings-lexus-alpine-vision-gt-cars/
1.18	14/04/2015	27	Volkswagen GTI Supersport Vision Gran Turismo, “GT Academy 2015″ has been added to the “Special Events” section, We have fixed the issue found after the 1.17 update where the settings of the [Fully Customizable Transmission] were being reset to default after entering a race. Improved the engine sounds for the Volkswagen GTI Roadster Vision Gran Turismo  Adjusted the deployment timings of the air brake for the Alpine Vision Gran Turismo, Alpine Vision Gran Turismo Race Mode, and Chevrolet Chaparral 2X Vision Gran Turismo, when using the (DUALSHOCK®3) wireless controller	206	https://www.gtplanet.net/gt6-update-1-18-now-available-brings-vw-gti-supersport-and-gt-academy-2015/
1.19	01/06/2015	48	Peugeot Vision GT, Nissan GT-R LM NISMO	270	https://www.gtplanet.net/gt6-update-1-19-now-available-brings-nissan-gt-r-lm-peugeot-vision-gt/
1.20	25/06/2015	24	Update to the Goodwood Hill Climb course and one of the more hotly anticipated Vision GT cars: the radical SRT Tomahawk.  LM55 concept car itself has also been updated within the game to match its real-world model. GT Academy cars which were used in the 2015 qualifier rounds have been added to the Nissan dealership within the game, including the Nissan Zytek Z11SN Greaves Motorsports and GT-R LM NISMO.	311	https://www.gtplanet.net/gt6-update-1-20-released-brings-srt-tomahawk-vision-gt-car-goodwood-fos-update/
1.21	30/09/2015	97	Course Maker and its four themes: Eifel, Eifel Flat, Andalusia (based on the location of Circuit de la Sierra), and an entirely new location for the series, Death Valley. Some updated car sounds.	185	https://www.gtplanet.net/gt6-update-1-21-now-available-course-maker-updated-car-sounds/
1.22	02/12/2015	63	Fixes a known exploit in Career Mode, where previously-suspended Championships could be restarted on a User- Created Course.  Two cars added  2020 Vision Gran Turismo, and Toyota’s tiny S-FR	35	https://www.gtplanet.net/gt6-update-1-22-arrives-with-a-quick-fix/

Gemcraft 2 Chasing Shadows released!

Well GemCraft Chapter Two: Chasing shadows has finally been relaseased (the game is here). There is a lot of chatter and good tips on the Armor Games forums.

A few good links here
http://armorgames.com/community/thread/12289263/gemcraft-cs-thoughts/page/1
http://armorgames.com/community/thread/11261731/gemcraft-chapter-2-chasing-shadows-not-support

Thought I would consolidate some tips and thoughts as I play (or find them).

•  I (Ihr9 from Armor Games) noticed on field E5 that with just one point in 4 traits it is possible to make a profit of 26 cores. This is available from the Apparition that will appear if  you expend 1 Shadow Core on a Trait. The apparition has appeared at least 2 consecutive plays so it doesnt appear to be random. Same with I5.
• You appear to get back the Shadow Cores you spend on pushing the Traits up. Say the norm is 3, you spend 2, the Battle will give you 5.
• If you expend Shadow Cores on a battle Trait, it appears more likely to get a Tailisman Fragment.
• Very interestingly there are Armor Games quest you can complete if you are logged in as one of their users. Interesting concept that someone else can gameify some elses game.
• Right click gems in towers to set their targetting priority.
• You can Gembomb or use Amplifiers to reduce your banishment costs.
• U to upgrade a gem. D to duplicate a gem. The options will hightlght in the gem decription when you have enough mana. Clicking on an empty structure will deploy a Gem
• SHIFT B to bomb from your gem inventory. B SHIFT to use the first Gem made in the inventory and bomb using Mana.
• I5 unlocks Hex M & H. Also has an apparition and Talisman Fragment.
• Vision Field V4 is in Hex . V4 is the first level from Gemcraft Labrynth :> 
• BUG - if you Enhance a Gem just after placement it skips the placement cycle time ;)
• Preview Maps
• Blue = The Orb of Presence
• Brown = Beacons
• Dark Brown = Nests
• Black = Swamling Hive
• Purple = Other Structures
• Grey = Towers or Amplifiers
• Light Tan = Roads
• Medium Tan = Shrines
• Dark Tan = Traps
• Light Green = Trees
• Cyan = Wizards Tower
• Off Light Green = Tower Locks
• Green Gray = Tome Chamber
• Layout of  Maps

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

• Maps Part 2 :)

Comments on the Game Design

The developer obviously copped a bit of flack over missed deadlines during the dvelopment cycle. To his defence I thought we would look at some of the innovations delivered.

User Experience (UX)

I think a lot of effort has gone into developing the user interface (UI) that makes it a much more intuiative experience then the earlier versions of the series. Innovation in the area of UI the make them more intuiative require a lot of thought and effort.

The guys who worked on X-COM put together some good videos (Firaxis Games and 2K Games plus a good independent comparison of the two games) on their development process. The challenges of making a tribute game with unusual genre with a more turn based strategy approach to third person shooters, dealing with multiple layes of UI (tactical and strategic views) and emotional engagement of the users. The Bureau was not well received as it was a major departure from the X-COM genre in both being a real time shooter and set in 1962 rather then a future setting.

D&D Next (aka get my inner Geek on!)

1974 D&D Original
1977 D&D Basic Set 1st revision
1977 AD&D
1981 D&D Basic Set 2nd revision
1983 D&D Basic Set 3rd revision
1989 AD&D 2nd Edition
1991 D&D Rules Cyclopedia
2000 D&D 3rd edition
2003 D&D v3.5
2008 D&D 4th edition
2012 D&D Next(announced, play tested and released as 5th Ed)
2014 D&D 5th edition

Two major editions in 20 years to four major editions in 12 years ... i guess that's why it feels like a lot of new editions. And they are still yet to embrace online let alone mobile technology.

Agile Development (aka The Fast & The Furious)

Came across an agile development management platform called TargetProcess. I am not sure about their product or approach but I do like this graphic.

The app can be trialled for 5 users or less and installed with Microsoft's Web Platform free kit. Yes I know its Microsoft but I think there is a case for using their free tools to RAD prototypes given the level of investment and close integration to the MS windows development roadmap. Oh and the small issue of 80% odd market share.

Handle Leaks & High CPU Usage (aka Throwing Sand)

I have had a bug bear that seemed to affect the reliability of system.

I eventually traced it down to the slow leaking of system handles. After endless searching I finally came across this very simple tip to view the system handles by process in the Task Manager. Bob's your uncle I found the culprit and killed it!

On a roll I decided to attack the high idle CPU which appeared to be caused by the various IM app's I had running. It turned out to be predominantly Microsoft Live Messenger 2011 and by following this tip to block the advertising it seems to have work.

It did not work immediately but eventually it settled down to a near 0% rather then the previosus 10% CPU utilisation.

Me 2 Microsoft 0 (at least today!).